Short March 2010 London Cocoa from 2264.
Cocoa is back at the level of its long-term peak in the commodity spike of mid-2008. It has recently failed to break this level again. Now the price has again run up to it, and seems to be failing to break through.
Even the FT has been reporting about tight supply in the cocoa market owing to problems in Cote D’Ivoire. I suspect that much of this is now in the price. The previous price highs suggest that demand falls away with cocoa at these high levels.
2400. Loss-to-stop = 0.26% of capital. Stop placed above the previous peak at a level suggestive of a breakout above the long-term trading range.
Pyramid break below 2150 and 2050.
Are you trading against the trend? Yes — trading long-term range.
Is there a fundamental story? Yes — contrarian.
Is there a technical buying opportunity? Yes.
Are you placing your stop at a point where the market would tell you you were wrong? Yes.
How much conviction do you have? Medium — strong range but contrarian bet.
Does the risk accord with the conviction? Yes — max risk at present is 0.5%
Do you have a plan? Yes.
If you are wrong, will you live to fight another day? Yes.