I was stopped out of this trade almost immediately. The risk level and the stop position were good. I think I just jumped in too quickly without waiting to see how the market behaved. Any comments anyone? Charts from IG Index.
Short EUR/NOK from 84414.8. Bought after order to open was hit.
Downside breakout from recent triangle pattern.
Norwegian central bank increased interest rates.
84685. Loss-to-stop = 0.125% of trading capital. Stop placed here in the expectation that intra-day resistance at around 84450 will hold.
Are you trading against the trend? Yes
Is there a fundamental story? Yes
Is there a technical buying opportunity? Yes
Is the trade likely to be correlated with other live trades? No
Are you placing your stop at a point where the market would tell you you were wrong? Yes
How much conviction do you have? Low
Does the risk accord with the conviction? Yes
Do you have a plan? No, with hindsight!
If you are wrong, will you live to fight another day? Yes
This was a quick decision to get in early in case of a developing trend. With hindsight I moved too fast and should have waited to see what developed. I dislike the way the NOK moves and think I will give it a wide berth until I understand it better.