Writing in the FT, Chris Watling expects an oil glut.

My response is, who knows? Something that I have noticed about people who write about financial markets is that they don’t acknowledge how enormously uncertain the future is. If they did, it would make for boring reading, and it would not be as useful, because it’s easier to form an opinion yourself from a number of competing views than from a mass of people who hedge their bets.

At times you can dimly see a few months ahead, and if the most likely outcomes look better than what is priced in, you can buy on fundamentals. Some people — working at Vitol or Cargill — know more about what is going on in their markets than anyone else, so they can buy on fundamentals. But for most people most of the time, a “fundamental view” of what is happening is only a best guess, however confident you feel about it; the game is to improve the average quality of the guesses. That is why technical analysis is important. The price tells you something about all the things you haven’t even thought of.

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