Sugar fell back to its trend line — from the market action it looks like it was caused by a data release, but I don’t know what it was. The price bounced on the trend line and I took the opportunity to add at around 730 with a tight stop (shown on the chart) just below a resistance level (in the hope that it might become a support). This has been such a strong trend that a fall below the trend line would be telling me I was wrong about something — like whether whatever caused the fall was significant. A sudden fall like this is a risky thing, because technically it should presage a further fall. Anyway, I have decided to trade against it.

I have risked 25bps on this trade — mostly because I have been risking 25bps on everything at the moment. I had been conviction-weighting my trades, but I am not sure that there is a correlation between my conviction and the probability of success.

I have brought in the stop on the earlier sugar trade to around 700, locking in a gain of 1.6%.

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