No trades entered today. Everything seems to be going my way: short EUR/USD, long gold, long SPX, long sugar, short GBP/AUD. The only thing that is not doing so well is short AUD/NZD — I added to it a couple of days ago and the breakout on which I added seems to have failed — I’m expecting the stop to get hit.

Thoughts for the day:

  • Looking for an entry point to buy the long gilt. Short-term interest rate futures have risen in the past few days, indicating falling expectations of rate hikes — no surprise there, but sadly I couldn’t get an entry point. Even if the recovery story continues to play out — I expect that it will, with good US employment numbers this week — long rates should be anchored by expectations that short rates will stay low, and by central banks’ repeated concerns about deflation (my impression is that central banks can’t understand why the markets see inflation under every bed — I suspect because market professionals are still fighting the last war).
  • Should I be short natural gas? Even the cold weather in the US has failed to create a breakout, merely pulling in LNG supplies. The price is near the top of its range and a short looks like a reasonable trade.