I have been stopped out of my attempt to add to the short AUD/NZD position. This is not hugely surprising — it is the first time that I have tried to add to a winning position and it will take me time to learn the skill. I added on a downside breakout towards the end of 2009, which looked like a reasonable thing to do; I waited intra-day for the breakout to hold, got a good entry level near the resistance level, and placed the stop sensibly wide, in the middle of the previous narrow trading range.
So I am inclined to think this was not a bad trade, just a case where the market came back and told me I was wrong.
The one question in my mind is whether the best way to add to a position is on a breakout — which will generally be a less strong signal than the one that led me into the position in the first place — or near the top of the downtrend, if there is one, or only on a decent correction.
I suppose the answer is, “it depends”; in the case of my long sugar trade, I am planning to add the next time the price gets to the trend line. I missed just such an opportunity yesterday, because I didn’t trust myself to trade while feeling ill. That was probably the right decision.