I was stopped out of my long gilt position. I have been trying to get into this market for a few days now. I think that gilt yields are likely to fall back, anchored by short term rates and the realisation that inflation is not a problem. 10-year rates around the world have run up to resistance levels, and seem likely to fall back. I tried to get into this market by leaving an order at the lower level shown on the first chart (from IG Index). The market ran away from me before this order was filled. I watched to see how the market opened the following day, and when it started to run up again, I got in (higher level shown on the first chart). As the up-trend corrected, I added to the position, on the basis that I had already got in as a bet on a strong uptrend, I wasn’t entirely happy with an entry so much higher than the previous day’s low, and this was a good chance to narrow the stop on the first trade (entry and stop level shown on the second chart). Having done this, however, I messed it up. The intra-day uptrend did not reassert itself and the market failed to break its previuos high. I should have got out at that point; instead I was paralysed and was taken out by the stop as the market opened lower this morning.

Why didn’t I cut the trade? Because I was watching it too closely. I couldn’t see the forest for the trees.

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