… But the BLS explained the rise as being down to a backlog of new claims that had built up over the Christmas period. This is bad for my EUR/USD trade, but good for my short oil position (though the oil market has traded up — this is the second time I have noticed it apparently spiking the wrong way after a data release). Let’s hope that the market will understand the reasons for the jump and not sell the dollar.

If gold is an inflation hedge, a bad initial claims number should be negative for the gold price. If gold is a safe haven, the number should be positive for the gold price. I think that gold is presently a risk trade, so a bad initial claims number should be negative, and thus good for me.

Update: The next interesting piece of news will be the crude oil inventories report at 1600 UK time.

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