Fundamentally, the sugar market is tight — the rationale for this trade is the same as the previous long sugar trade, on which I took profits too early. Technically, sugar has held above its previous breakout at a time when almost every other commodity has been falling (presumably driven by the stronger USD; this goes for coffee, gold, platinum, oil, etc., but not copper). This suggests to me that an entry at current levels may be the best chance I get to get on this trend. My main worries are that the last breakout was rather unenthusiastic, and that an Indonesian sugar tender this week failed to push the price up very much. At least if sugar is able to fall back, I would expect my other commodity positions (short gold, oil and cocoa) to do well.

Charts from IG Index.