I have been meaning to go back through all my trades of the past two months and to write a monthly report. Sadly I have been so tired this week that it has not happened.

I think I have done far too many trades. Aha!, you say, a classic beginner’s mistake. But it is one that it is hard to avoid, because a beginner cannot distinguish between a trade that is good and a trade that should never have been entered. You don’t really know what is going to work until you try it, and that means you have to try lots of things and see what works.

My impression is that the trades that have worked best have been the ones where I have had some view of what is really going on in the market — in terms of supply and demand. Attempts to trade the “mood” have not worked. I have always suspected that “mood” is just another word for “price action”. This suggests that I should avoid trades based on price action and market mood, because they are the same. I should look for trades where there is a technical entry signal and a good fundamental story.

I should also stand aside when I am tired.