I was stopped out of live cattle late on Friday evening. I think I should have waited longer for an entry point on this trade — because of the strong run in cocoa, I had forgotton some of the lessons of the last few months, including the last time I traded this market. One reason for caution would have been that speculators are now very long of cattle — is a shakeout due (see charts — bottom chart, green line)? I will now check this indicator more often. Still, overall I don’t think this was a bad trade — I had a fundamental story and a good technical signal.

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