I have slightly reprogrammed my “Breakout Success” metric. It now shows the proportion of times the market is  lower than still beyond the breakout level (appoximated by the close of the day before the breakout) ten days later. For EUR/USD, it tells me that I should have been more aggressive about getting in on a re-test, going back in if I got stopped out — because the success rate of downside breakouts for the past 12 months has been 100% (top-left chart, red line).

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