I just wondered how the performance of EUR/USD 10 days after a breakout compared with its performance 10 days after an up-day or a down-day. The top chart shows the former, and the bottom chart shows the proportion of the time the market is higher 10 days after an up-day.

The breakout seems a better indicator (lines are generally higher). This is good — it shows that the breakout effect is not just an artefact of the fact that the market is trending.

EUR/USD is a fuzzy market. The effect is even clearer on a market that is lessy fuzzy (I have used cocoa as an example):