The wheat price has broken out to the downside, but I am not trading it. Why not?

  1. There is no news in wheat, but there is macro news. A breakout for no reason might be interesting, but a breakout because of potential weaker demand (based on European news) is pretty limp.
  2. It’s not very convincing breakout. It first happened on low volume before the main trading session had begun; the price climbed through the session but sold off in the last ten minutes (thrust is therefore inconclusive). Volume is above the 10-day moving average, but only slightly.
  3. The entire universe is already short — as shown by the bright green line in the COT net position chart.