Both open positions have moved a little against me today, but not yet enough to worry about. I am happy to be in both of these trades and quite relaxed. One has to wonder whether natural gas will break its 200-day moving average (which it would have to do to hit my profit target), but I can survive a failed test and still take a small profit.

I have reverted to spending more of the day on research than on watching the markets. This certainly makes me feel more in control. I am still keeping more tabs on the movement of markets thorough the day than I have in the past, but it is important to have some perspective on short-term moves.

Standard deviation has been on my mind. What does standard deviation give you? It is a measure of market trend, rather than “volatility” as ordinary language defines the word. Average true range seems a much better measure of volatility. I am not sure how this observation ties in with modern portfolio theory — I will have to let this idea percolate and see if anything comes of it.

I have been wondering about making a “what is going on” video blog in order to clarify my thinking. I’m going to play with the idea for a while before going on camera.

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