The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showed weaker expansion today. There is now a consistent picture coming from manufacturing data that the pace of expansion is slowing.

There is a danger this could feed into a story about slowing US growth — as the bounce from inventory rebuilding falls out of the GDP numbers. If the story starts to run, there are plenty of other reasons to be bearish, not least the falling effect of government stimulus.

However, my short EUR/GBP trade should benefit from that; natural gas has its own dynamics; and USD/SGD could continue to fall if Asia, and especially China, manage to stay strong for a little longer.