How can I possibly hope to be a trader when there is so much I don’t know? I feel like a child who is just starting to realise how many fields of knowledge there are about which he knows nothing. The state of human knowledge may advance, but the state of any individual human being is stunning ignorance, even after 29 years of really trying hard to work everything out.

Trading is not just making decisions under uncertainty. Even variables that are not uncertain are generally unknown, so trading is also making decisions in a state of highly imperfect knowledge. This is another reason for focusing on trying to understand the main headlines of what is going on now, and not making predictions about the future. The former task is so massively complicated that one can never reasonably move on to the latter.

There is some hope, because understanding is as much about seeing things in the right light as it is about knowledge. If there is one thing I have worked on for all this time, it is learning to see things in the right light.

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