Drought in Russia, dry conditions elsewhere and short-covering from a large speculative short position are driving the price up. Technically, it has just broken strongly from the 200-day moving average. The only question is, have things already gone too far. Soybeans, which are correlated with wheat, have also broken out, and may not have gone so far; on the other hand, the breakout was correspondingly less immense than wheat’s. So I have traded both, with half a risk unit at risk on each.

Thrust was mostly positive and not equivocal enough to make me not trade. Demand is rocketing and supply is flat to falling. It has been a toss-up between using a wide and a tight stop in the past, and with an ATR quite high at the moment I have opted for a 1ATR stop. Since this is a bet on the market continuing to run strongly, that makes sense. A 1ATR stop has been more successful over the long term in this market. Lmit at c.643 (shown on stop loss page) may be a bit demanding given this is just above a long-term resistance level — I will cut if the market gets close and has a pause.

Advertisements