EUR has broken out to the upside against USD and GBP, having broken out against JPY last week (or rather, the JPY broke against everything on the announcement of government intervention in the currency, so is ahead of things). Short-term breakouts have generally been a good signal in EUR/GBP, better than in EUR/USD, and in addition the newsflow is starting to surprise positively in the US while UK data releases continue to disappoint, but the GBP has not taken much of a fall as yet (shown on the currency averages page). Intraday the breakout looks convincing, coming with volume in the morning and again with unusually high volume in the afternoon, and the balance of volume has been strongly to the upside for the past two days. The market is far from extended, having not had an upside breakout since July, but short-term and medium-term uptrends are in place.

Fundamentally the successful debt auctions in Europe yesterday are futher evidence of a turning point in the EUR story. I tried to trade the downward turn in this story a couple of weeks ago, as worries about European banking returned to the fore, but now it seems to have turned around again.

I have placed the stop at around 1.5 ATR, below the low of the breakout day. This may be a little wide.

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