The long-term supply situation remains bearish for natural gas. US producers are continuing to engage in shale gas exploration, and the number of rigs operating remains high. In the shorter term, mild weather has meant a lack of heating demand. LNG supplies are being drawn to countries outside the US on account of higher prices, but the downside breakout in natural gas suggests that this is not enough to stabilise the price and the downtrend continues. I have therefore shorted natural gas on its most recent breakout to new lows.

Update: I forgot to say that, since the spread is quite wide on nat gas, the risk-reward at the bottom of the breakout with a stop at a reasonable level was not good enough for me to take the trade. It was good enough a little higher, so I left a limit order, which was filled on a spike upwards that quickly reversed. Consequently I am in near the top of the trading range of the past few days.