I have been cautious of this trade — probably too cautious — because there is a slowly-moving currency band in the way of the recent move. Yesterday, however, the MAS announced that it would “steepen and widen” the currency band. I take this as confirmation that they are prepared to continue to allow the SGD to rise in order to offset the negative effects of hot-money inflows resulting from QE2. Breakouts have worked pretty well in this market recently. The big move happened at a low-volume time of day, and the market spent the rest of the day slowly climbing, but the USD had a downward breakout against several currencies yesterday which gives me confidence that the move is a real one (i.e. the USD did have a breakout, but as the SGD had already moved overnight there was not a big move in the middle of the day).

Advertisements