Large demand from China and a cold snap in that country associated with La Nina are supporting the continuing uptrend in soybeans. There is clearly a trend and there was clearly a breakout, and the profit target is the right side of the 10-year high — no reason not to trade. I placed the stop a little wider than 1ATR, below the low of the breakout day, and bought on a limit order overnight (as I decided to trade after the close). Thrust looks limp but that is because there was a big down thrust day — this is the biggest up-thrust for 20 days.

Update: Forgot to mention this pretty key point from Bloomberg (I did know this when I put the trade on last night…):

“The Chinese are buying U.S. soybeans to sell into the domestic market where prices are higher,” Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte in Singapore, said in an e-mailed report today. “We would expect the voracious demand from China to last” as long as U.S. supplies are cheaper, he said.

Soybeans for January delivery rose 6.75 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $12.305 a bushel at 11 a.m. London time on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price earlier touched $12.35 a bushel, the highest price for the most-active contract since June 5, 2009.


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