I was stopped out of this position yesterday. Breakouts have not been a wildly successful way of trading this market and that is one reason why I have been cautious of it; in addition, this market has tended to move with treasury yields which are rising at present. There were a lot of reasons to be cautious about this trade, but on the other hand there is a downtrend and I think it will continue. And so I am still wondering whether this was a good trade or not. It probably was a good one — I have found over time that it is better to trade when you are uncertain, because missing a big move is much worse for your psychology and your P&L than having another loser.

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