This article asks whether day trading is dead. It ends with the following point:

The evidence proves computers now own the short-term, but humans still own the long-term [sic].

The idea that “humans own the long term” is not developed very far in this article, but it is the basis of my trading strategy. In the short term, markets are whipped around by buyers and sellers; regular patterns in their behaviour provide a means for computer traders to make money. But on a scale of weeks or months, the markets are moved by events — politics, catastrophes, shifting economic phenomena, and so on — that computers do not understand. A human being should be able to understand these things well enough to predict whether or not they will drive a trend in the market, and to outperform a long-term trend-following computer system by avoiding false trend signals. Of course, human beings also have their limitations; the question of whether or not I will become a successful trader hinges on whether or not I can overcome them well enough to beat a computer in predicting a trend.

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