The AUD has broken out to the downside against the USD.

This is a reaction to a fall in the Australian trade surplus, probably due to widespread flood damage. There have also been reports this morning that the floods are endangering the city of Brisbane
I am not inclined to trade this. We may be at a USD turning point, and I am playing that against the currency I expect to be weakest, the EUR, in order to reduce the downside to the trade. But the turning point is not yet confirmed, and this breakout has not happened in other USD currency pairs — it is an AUD move. As Macro Man points out, these floods are likely to be inflationary and to boost growth, and therefore should not break the AUD uptrend. And I don’t trade against the trend.