I mentioned in my markets update this morning that the risk on-risk off see-saw, where everything was correlated with everything else, was breaking down. I am still trading as if the best thing to trade is risk-on. But below are a few charts that make me wonder (click charts to zoom). Do these charts simply tell me that the trend is becoming more discriminating? I can think of a reason why each of these charts is failing to rally with the broader risk trade — but “markets will become more discriminating this year” has been a stock phrase of market strategists since correlations began rising in the financial crisis. So is it that the risk trades that I am long are likely to take a drop?


S&P Consumer Discretionary ETF vs Consumer Staples ETF

Dow Jones India Titans

Dow Jones Brazil

Dow Jones Hong Kong

Dow Jones Shanghai

Other Markets


West Texas Intermediate