I have three trades left after the battles I have recently lost: oil, soybeans and wheat, all long. All three trades are very consensus. In the charts below, the bottom panel shows the Commitments of Traders report, with the green lines showing the positions of speculators. As you can see, speculators are very long all three commodities (the charts show WTI (I am long ICE Brent, for which I can’t get a chart), soybeans and wheat in that order).
Should I be worried about this? Certainly it would be nicer to be against the consensus, but trading signals seem to work and markets keep trending even when everybody is long. Sadly I haven’t worked out how to combine the COT report into a back-test, but the Tradestation website suggests it is possible.