I am perplexed by this. There have been enormous drops in several markets (see charts below). This reminds me of the sell-off in November on worries about Chinese tightening, which subsequently turned out to be nonsense — as I expected at the time.
But what I am trying to do is make money, not be right, and I have damn well failed. Perhaps I still have too sophisticated an idea of what moves the markets. I said to someone a few weeks ago, only half in jest, that the best model of the markets would be the reactions of a nervous American child. And why shouldn’t it be?