Just time for a few notes today.
Mr. Tsipras has been in Berlin and is off to Washington. Trying to become more congenial?
Oil price underperforming global markets suggests demand weakness.
S&P 500 is behaving oddly. Four low-range days in which the open and close were near the day’s high. I searched for series of four days in which range was less than the 50-day average and both open and close were in the top third of the bar, using data going back to mid 1993, and found no instances of three days in a row, let alone four.
An analyst quoted in Bloomberg said Chinese monetary policy was loose. I thought it was looser, but not loose. Am I right? The same article says that economists are divided on whether there will be further loosening this year, so at least the answer is not obvious.
Norway’s government is taking explicit measures to deal with the strong Krone — potential for a trade?
Cyprus needs a bailout of about EUR 18bn, including EUR 10bn for the banks. Various sources quoted in the FT argue that PSI is unlikely because: a high proportion of debt is held domestically, so the economy would take a big hit; PSI would be a risk, reopening a Green can of worms; much debt is governed by English law. There is also an argument against haircuts for senior bank bondholders: there is not enough senior bank debt to make it worth opening this “Pandora’s Box”. In terms of the outlook, Cyprus has huge gas reserves and the communists ought to be ejected in next month’s presidential election which could mean scope for privatisations. I wonder where government and senior bank bonds are trading.