Not much time today, so here are some quick notes.

Not long after two senior members of the Governing Council said it would be a good idea to publish minutes, Mario Draghi said that a proposal on this subject would be put to the Council at the forthcoming meeting. Why now, when this has been talked about for years? Probably because it would help the ECB with its venture into forward guidance (although, given the divisions on the Council, it might also sow confusion).

Barack Obama spoke to Democrats about the next Fed chairman. He said he had interviewed a number of candidates, and mentioned Don Kohn specifically. I am not sure whether the White House is trying to pain the selection as not being a two-horse race, or whether it is actually not a two-horse race; still, the only reason to think it was was a lot of media comment.

The Fed statement did not say very much:

  • Inflation persistently below 2% could hamper expansion. CPCE 1.1% at present.
  • Anticipates return to 2% over medium term.
  • Growth will pick up from recent pace.
  • Further improvements in labour market have occurrred.
  • Recent economic growth downgraded from “moderate” to “modest”.

There was much talk about the US GDP revisions, but nothing particularly unexpected.

Oh, and the media are excited about the latest tiny uptick in the official Chinese PMI, which anyway is a consistently weird indicator.

And I have spent ages trying to make a sensible chart of US sector financial balances. This is surprisingly difficult. It’s no wonder nobody seems to follow this stuff consistently when it is so hard to get any data!


  • US Advance GDP 1.7% QOQ ann. b.e. Q2; 1.4% YOY. Q1 was revised from 1.8% to 1.1% QOQ ann. (and, as a reminder of how unreliable these advance estimates are, from an advance estimate of 2.5%).
  • China manufacturing PMI 50.3 b.e. and rose.
  • China HSBC PMI 47.7 a.e. and fell.
  • Spain PMI 49.8 d.e. and fell.
  • Italy PMI 50.4 b.e. and rose.
  • Eurozone PMI 50.3 a.e. and rose.
  • UK PMI 54.6 b.e. and rose strongly.